Social Mobility in a High Inequality Regime

At several critical junctures in U.S. history, scholars and other commentators have become concerned that opportunities to get ahead may be growing more unequal. Although these concerns have never been borne out, the recent takeoff in income inequality has revived them yet again. There is strikingly little evidence on whether such concerns are warranted. Unfortunately, a host of methodological problems immediately emerge in attempting to establish recent trends in social mobility. These obstacles can, however, be overcome by searching for trend among those age groups and social classes that are most likely to evince trend. Although the data are sparse and caution is clearly warranted, the key conclusion coming out of this analysis is that the General Social Survey data do indeed reveal a recent increase in intergenerational association among young and even middle-age adults, driven by an increased advantage of the professional-managerial class relative to all other classes. The observed pattern of trend is largely consistent with what we call the “top-income hypothesis” and, more generally, with the predictions coming out of a two-factor model featuring the effects of (a) the expansion of mass education, and (b) the takeoff in income inequality. Just as this model implies, the association-over-time curve has the expected convex shape in the two younger age groups, while the change in association appears to be accelerating in the most recent decade. These results suggest that the takeoff in income inequality may account in part for the decline in mobility. 

Reference Information

Author: 

Pablo A. Mitnik,
Erin Cumberworth,
David B. Grusky
Publisher: 
Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality
Publication Date: 
June 2013