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State of the Union 2018: Education

Despite common beliefs to the contrary, male students do not consistently outperform female students in mathematics. On average, males have a negligible lead in math in fourth grade, but that lead essentially disappears by eighth grade. This pattern shifts in high school. By age 17, there is a meaningful male advantage in math, approximately one-third of a grade level in 2012. In reading, female students consistently outperform male students from fourth grade through high school.

State of the Union 2018: Gender Identification

The idea that people may not identify with traditional binary gender categories has gained acceptance in the United States, but the lack of recognition of transgender and nonbinary citizens in administrative records, identity documents, and national surveys restricts people’s ability to self-identify and limits our understanding of patterns and trends in well-being.

The Changing Safety Net for Low-Income Parents and Their Children: Structural or Cyclical Changes in Income Support Policy?

Refundable tax credits and food assistance are the largest transfer programs available to able-bodied working poor and near-poor families in the United States, and simultaneous participation in these programs has more than doubled since the early 2000s.

The New Third Generation: Post-1965 Immigration and the Next Chapter in the Long Story of Assimilation

Now is the time for social scientists to focus an analytical lens on the new third generation to see what their experiences reveal about post-1965 assimilation. This paper is a first step. We compare the household characteristics of post-1965, second-generation Latino and Asian children in 1980 to a “new third generation” in 2010.

Convergence and Disadvantage in Poverty Trends (1980–2010): What is Driving the Relative Socioeconomic Position of Hispanics and Whites?

The gap between white and Hispanic poverty has remained stable for decades despite dramatic changes in the size and composition of the two groups. The gap, however, conceals crucial differences within the Hispanic population whereby some leverage education and smaller families to stave off poverty while others facing barriers to citizenship and English language acquisition face particularly high rates. In this paper, we use Decennial Census and American Community Survey data to examine poverty rates between Hispanic and non-Hispanic, white heads of household.

The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco

We exploit quasi-experimental variation in assignment of rent control to study its impacts on tenants, landlords, and the overall rental market. Leveraging new data tracking individuals’ migration, we find rent control increased renters’ probabilities of staying at their addresses by nearly 20%. Landlords treated by rent control reduced rental housing supply by 15%, causing a 5.1% city-wide rent increase. Using a dynamic, neighborhood choice model, we find rent control offered large benefits to covered tenants.

Divergent Pathways to Assimilation? Local Marriage Markets and Intermarriage Among U.S. Hispanics

The growing diversity of the U.S. population raises questions about integration among America's fastest growing minority population—Hispanics. The canonical view is that intermarriage with the native-born White population represents a pathway to assimilation that varies over geographic space in response to uneven marital opportunities. Using data on past-year marriage from the 2009–2014 American Community Survey, the authors demonstrate high rates of intermarriage among Hispanics.

Dinner Table Human Capital and Entrepreneurship

We document three new facts about entrepreneurship. First, a majority of male entrepreneurs start a firm in the same or a closely related industry as their fathers’ industry of employment. Second, this tendency is correlated with intelligence: higher-IQ entrepreneurs are less likely to follow their fathers. Third, an entrepreneur that starts a firm in the same 5-digit industry as where his father was employed tends to outperform entrepreneurs in the same industry whose fathers did not work in that industry.

Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work

We summarize a framework for the study of the implications of automation and AI on the demand for labor, wages, and employment. Our task-based framework emphasizes the displacement effect that automation creates as machines and AI replace labor in tasks that it used to perform. This displacement effect tends to reduce the demand for labor and wages. But it is counteracted by a productivity effect, resulting from the cost savings generated by automation, which increase the demand for labor in non-automated tasks.

Wages and Employment: The Canonical Model Revisited

The basic canonical model fails to predict the aggregate college premium outside of the original sample period (1963-1987) or to account for the observed deviations in college premia for younger vs. older workers. This paper documents that these failings are due to mis-measurement of the relevant prices and quantities when using composition adjustment methods to construct relative skill prices and supplies, which ignore cohort effects that are particularly important in the 1980s and 1990s.

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